New Island - Latest News

Politics, Leadership And Referenda - Johnny Fallon

Johnny Fallon is a political analyst, author and commentator. New Island published his Dynasties: Irish Political Families in November 2011. In this guest blog he writes about leadership, Europe, our politics and referenda. You can read his blog here or follow him on Twitter.

~~~

Politics is a game dictated by perception and circumstance.

It is a series of deals and decisions that often depend on how they are viewed for success. This week we will face another deal as the Irish government sits down with its EU counterparts to try and come up with an answer to the financial crisis. One of the major questions will be whether or not the new deal will need to be put to a referendum. The second question will be whether the Irish government can get on its debt a reduction and, if so, how much.

Both questions are linked. The EU needs a couple of things from Ireland. Firstly it needs Ireland to agree to greater budgetary control from Europe. This is essential for the Germans if they are to get their own taxpayers to support the deal. Ireland will be willing to do this if it means a sizeable reduction in debt as that would earn an easing of the relentless budgetary cuts. The EU would also like Ireland to move its stance on Corporation Tax. In order for this to occur Ireland will need to be offered a prize it cannot resist, for the EU to get its wish they would need to offer a debt reduction so large that anyone could see it far outweighs the benefits from lower taxation receipt.

So everything is on the table. But it does appear that a strong effort is being made to avoid having to hold a referendum. This might seem sensible given that a referendum runs the risk of being lost, but in the longer term it could be a very big mistake.

Back when Michael Collins signed the Treaty to establish a 26 county state he immediately ran into a problem when Eamon De Valera suggested that the negotiating team had no right to sign away six counties without first referring the matter to the Dáil. De Valera had a point and it won him some support. However, the anti-treaty argument was lost before the civil war was even fought. Once a referendum was held and the Irish people backed the treaty then the argument of what should have been referred to the Dáil was academic. De Valera carried away on an idealistic stance failed to recognise the power of the mandate from the people. Once they had backed the treaty democratically support for the ant treaty cause was always going to dwindle.

De Valera learned from it however, and we know that elections strengthened his hand when it came to the economic war or to drafting a new constitution. If you want a decision to carry weight then you need to seek a mandate for it to allow you proceed with being told at every point that it is against the will of the people.

In modern times too the media agenda is often dictated by what the people want and what the feeling of the majority is. When it comes to Europe we spent many years reaffirming our position as a nation at the heart of Europe by consistently endorsing referendums. This made the job of government easier, Ireland wanted what we were signing up to. That relationship became torrid in the last decade. Rejection of both Nice and Lisbon referendums caused a great deal of uncertainty among the body politic. Both were re-run and both were endorsed at the second time of asking. There is a strong argument that as an electorate we always knew that there were no consequences to rejecting a treaty because it could always be re-run. If we thought it could not be, as was the case when the question was put a second time, we began to change our minds.

Ireland has now been in crisis mode for several years. We have felt leaderless and many feel that the current generation of politicians are simply not up to the task of leadership. While in crisis mode some very far reaching decisions were taken. The sensible point of view suggests that the subject matter of these decisions was too urgent and complex to be understood or faced by voters in a referendum. In particular two items stood out, the bank guarantee and the EU/IMF bailout. Ever since these decisions were taken there has been a mood that an elite are deciding our future and don’t care about the average citizen. In reality what happened was that politicians were terrified of the consequences of rejection of such matters, it would cause governments to fall and may make a bad situation worse. Therefore they truly believed that the put the country first by taking a decision they felt was the lesser of two evils.

However, the mistake they made was that you cannot ever claim to have full support for these measures if the people never voted on them. The decisions were too big for a government. It takes a brave politician and an even greater leader to face a risk and to accept the consequences. At some point in this crisis we are going to have to let the Irish people take a decision for themselves.

As a people we need a sense of control and responsibility. We have played the blame game for long enough. If Enda Kenny comes back from Europe with a strong deal, wouldn’t it be nice if he recommended we accept it, and if he told us our future was, in fact, up to us now. It would be an incredibly brave decision and one that would be a hallmark of a leader. At last we could decide as a people what we want to do rather than sit on the fence shouting like idle spectators.

If such a referendum were held it would mark a seminal moment in Irish history. It may also mark a turning point for the people as regards this current crisis. If we vote to accept a new treaty then we vote to accept all that comes with it, no more accusing politicians of selling us out, betraying heir country or throwing away sovereignty. No more accusing them of putting self interest above the good of the people. For the first time since the crisis began, Enda Kenny would lead a government confident that it was on a course, set by the people and on which the nation was agreed.

Of course the reasons efforts are being made to avoid a referendum are because of the possible consequences of rejection. It would be a huge decision. Ireland could destroy the Euro forever; potentially it could set in train the breakup and end of the entire EU project. That’s a lot of weight and ignominious history that an Irish politician might rather avoid carrying into history. A defeat would also most likely signal an election as it would be a game changer as regards all of our current plans. All parties would need to put new proposals to the people and they would need to decide again who is best to lead them into a very changed world post rejection. It is understandable that if it were possible to allow such a chalice pass one by, a politician might look for the escape rather than face the referendum and the possible end of their career.

Then there is the ultimate fear that we as a nation would have to live with the consequences. Default, bondholders, letting banks collapse would no longer be proposals but would immediately become reality. We might soon find that the price of these could be just as high if not higher than the austerity we currently endure. We just can’t say for sure. We do know that we have never fully debated the consequences of these things and perhaps its time we did, rather than dismiss them as ‘not an option’.

A referendum holds out a huge prize if successful. We begin to move forward as a people and accept the course we are on. A rejection, brings many unknowns, some might feel we are better off, perhaps we would be, but one thing is for sure at least if we rejected a treaty we would face that unknown future together and start taking decisions and dealing with the situation rather than blaming it all on someone else. If rejection is the politician’s nightmare then we should learn that even in this worst case scenario we have taken the decision ourselves and let whatever happens happen. We can deal with it.

If however, the current pattern continues then we will have a government that signs the people up to a decision that many may not support. Undoubtedly it will be used as a weapon against the government and in time they will come to be seen as every bit as bad as their predecessor, deciding what’s best from their ivory tower, detached and ignorant to the peoples needs.

While we often like to kick ourselves and like to kick our politicians even more, Ireland has had its fair share of strong politicians, good leaders and men and women of vision. Sometimes we just need courage, someone to trust in the people and to convince ourselves that the right thing to do is right regardless of the consequences. We have been crippled by the fear of what will happen if we get it wrong, that politicians must somehow act as guardians to protect us from ourselves. A good leader convinces you to back them; a leader who fears to put their position to the test has already ceased to be a leader.

Johnny Fallon